Explainer
What the pre-match number is
The pre-match probability is a structured estimate built from the project’s stored fixture, venue, squad, standings, and player layers. It is an edge estimate, not a certainty claim.
Trust layer
How win probability is explained here
The site is built around one canonical match page per fixture, so the probability number has to stay consistent across the hero, the body, and the update log.
Explainer
What changes after toss
The number only moves after the toss when the venue data or the verified snapshot says the innings order matters. The site avoids forcing dramatic toss swings at neutral venues.
Explainer
What changes during the match
Live probability uses score, wickets, overs, current run rate, required run rate, and the innings state. If verified live data is missing, the page falls back safely instead of pretending to be live.
Explainer
What the number does not mean
A 56% edge is not a promise, a fake lock, or a betting command. It means one side currently has a stronger path than the other, with plenty of room for the game to turn.